Jacksonville vs. Buffalo Key Information

• Teams: Jaguars at Bills
• Where: Highmark Stadium Orchard Park
• Date: Monday, September 23rd
• Betting Odds BUF -257 | JAX +210 O/U 45.5

The Jaguars Can Win If…

Despite a 3-point loss to the Browns, the Jaguars were in a good position to win this one, as they were favored by -3 at home. Jacksonville lost by a score of 18-13, dropping their record to 0-2 for the season. The Jaguars fell behind early, with Deshaun Watson rushing for a 1-yard touchdown to give the Browns a 7-0 lead in the 1st quarter.

Jacksonville battled back and made it a 13-10 game in the 3rd quarter after Trevor Lawrence found Brian Thomas Jr. for a touchdown. Each team added a field goal in the 4th quarter, but the Jaguars couldn’t complete the comeback. The over/under line for the game was 41.5 points, and the teams combined for just 31 points.

The Jaguars’ offense struggled in their 18-13 loss to the Browns, managing just 13 points. They finished with 18 first downs and 127 yards on 21 attempts (6.0 yards per attempt). However, they were unable to find the endzone through the air, as Trevor Lawrence completed just 14 of 30 passes for 196 yards. Lawrence was also sacked four times and finished with a passer rating of 71.

Travis Etienne Jr. led the team with 52 rushing yards and scored the only touchdown for Jacksonville. Brian Thomas Jr. was the leading receiver with 94 yards, 66 of which came on a single reception. The Jaguars struggled on third down, converting only 33.3% of their chances.

In Jacksonville’s 18-13 loss to the Browns, the Jaguars’ defense held Cleveland to just 5.1 yards per attempt in the passing game. The Jaguars gave up 172 yards through the air, with the Browns completing 64.7% of their passes. Despite this, the Jaguars struggled to get off the field, allowing the Browns to convert 85.7% of their third downs.On the ground, the Browns found more success, rushing for 125 yards on 29 attempts. The Jaguars’ defense managed two sacks and held Cleveland without a passing touchdown. Jacksonville also won the quarterback hit battle, but they did lose the tackles for loss differential.

• Across Jacksonville’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 0-3. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 1-2.
• Across Jacksonville’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 3-7. In these contests, the team went just 4-6 against the spread, while going 4-6 on the over-under.

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The Bills Can Win If…

Buffalo is now 2-0 after their 31-10 win over the Dolphins. The Bills were +2.5 point underdogs on the road, giving them a comfortable cover and win by 21 points. The game was tied 7-7 after the 1st quarter, but the Bills took control in the 2nd, outscoring the Dolphins 24-3. Buffalo added a touchdown in the 3rd quarter and headed into the 4th with a 31-10 lead.

Buffalo’s big plays in the 2nd quarter included a 17-yard touchdown pass from Josh Allen to James Cook and a 34-yard touchdown pass to Ty Johnson. Tua Tagovailoa’s 5-yard touchdown pass to De’Von Achane tied the game early for Miami. The Bills missed a chance to extend their lead in the 4th, as they missed a 45-yard field goal with 7:59 remaining.

Josh Allen completed 13 of 19 passes for 139 yards and one touchdown in Buffalo’s 31-10 win over the Dolphins. The Bills’ offense managed just 13 first downs and 108 yards rushing on 26 attempts. Allen was not sacked in the game and finished with a passer rating of 107.

James Cook was the leading rusher with 78 yards on 11 carries, including two touchdowns and a 49-yard run. Khalil Shakir led the team in receiving with 54 yards on five catches. Buffalo’s offense will look to be more efficient in their next game, as they only converted on 33.3% of their third down attempts.

In their 31-10 win over the Dolphins, the Bills’ defense picked off three passes and held Miami to just 3-of-8 on third down. Despite giving up 139 yards on the ground, Buffalo allowed just 3.9 yards per carry and limited the Dolphins to 64 yards rushing. The Bills also defended the pass well, allowing 212 yards through the air on 25 completions, with a collective 64.1% completion rate.Buffalo’s defense recorded two sacks, and their pressure on the quarterback was evident, as they had five more QB hits than Miami and six more tackles for loss. The Bills will look to build on this performance in their next game.

• Buffalo has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-2. Their over-under record in these matchups was 3-0.
• Across Buffalo’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 7-3. Against the spread, Buffalo went 3-7 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Bills Can Win If…

Buffalo is now 2-0 after their 31-10 win over the Dolphins. The Bills were +2.5 point underdogs on the road, giving them a comfortable cover and win by 21 points. The game was tied 7-7 after the 1st quarter, but the Bills took control in the 2nd, outscoring the Dolphins 24-3. Buffalo added a touchdown in the 3rd quarter and headed into the 4th with a 31-10 lead.

Buffalo’s big plays in the 2nd quarter included a 17-yard touchdown pass from Josh Allen to James Cook and a 34-yard touchdown pass to Ty Johnson. Tua Tagovailoa’s 5-yard touchdown pass to De’Von Achane tied the game early for Miami. The Bills missed a chance to extend their lead in the 4th, as they missed a 45-yard field goal with 7:59 remaining.

Josh Allen completed 13 of 19 passes for 139 yards and one touchdown in Buffalo’s 31-10 win over the Dolphins. The Bills’ offense managed just 13 first downs and 108 yards rushing on 26 attempts. Allen was not sacked in the game and finished with a passer rating of 107.

James Cook was the leading rusher with 78 yards on 11 carries, including two touchdowns and a 49-yard run. Khalil Shakir led the team in receiving with 54 yards on five catches. Buffalo’s offense will look to be more efficient in their next game, as they only converted on 33.3% of their third down attempts.

In their 31-10 win over the Dolphins, the Bills’ defense picked off three passes and held Miami to just 3-of-8 on third down. Despite giving up 139 yards on the ground, Buffalo allowed just 3.9 yards per carry and limited the Dolphins to 64 yards rushing. The Bills also defended the pass well, allowing 212 yards through the air on 25 completions, with a collective 64.1% completion rate.Buffalo’s defense recorded two sacks, and their pressure on the quarterback was evident, as they had five more QB hits than Miami and six more tackles for loss. The Bills will look to build on this performance in their next game.

• Buffalo has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-2. Their over-under record in these matchups was 3-0.
• Across Buffalo’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 7-3. Against the spread, Buffalo went 3-7 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lean

Our prediction for this week three matchup between the Jaguars and Bills is to take Jacksonville to cover as road underdogs. Even though the point spread currently has the Bills at -5.5, we have the Jaguars coming out on top by a score of 26-22.

For an over/under pick, we really like the over, with a projected combined score of 48 points. With the line sitting at 45.5 points, there is some nice value in taking the over in this one.

Source: Scoresandstats.com