Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Picks and Predictions December 5th 2024
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Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers December 5th 2024
The Lions are favored at -185 on the money line as they host the Packers at 8:15 ET on Thursday, December 5th at Ford Field in Detroit. The Lions are looking to add to their record, and the Packers are +156 on the money line and +3.5 on the point spread. The game is being televised by AMZN, and the over/under line is set at 51 points.
Green Bay vs. Detroit Key Information
- Teams: Packers at Lions
- Where: Ford Field Detroit
- Date: Thursday, December 5th
- Betting Odds DET -185 | GB +156 O/U 51
The Packers Can Win If…
With three straight wins, the Packers now sit at 9-3, including a 4-1 record on the road. After a narrow 20-19 win over the Bears in week 11, Green Bay bounced back with two home victories, beating the 49ers 38-10 in week 12 and the Dolphins 30-17 in week 13. Against Miami, they covered the 3.5-point spread, but the 47 combined points fell just short of the 47.5-point line.
Heading into week 14, our power rankings have the Packers 4th, and they have a 99.1% chance of making the playoffs. However, their odds of winning the NFC North are just 5.3%, as they are 1-2 in division games. Against the spread, Green Bay is 6-6 this season, with an average scoring margin of +6.5 points per game.
Heading into week 14, the Packers are 9th in our offensive power rankings. They are 7th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 26.5, and they rank 3rd in total yards with 382.4 per game. Jordan Love has been playing well, posting a passer rating of 129 in week 13, going 21/28 for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception. Green Bay has also been strong in the first quarter, ranking 4th in the league in scoring.
On the ground, the Packers are 5th in rushing yards per game, averaging 148.5, on 31 attempts per game. Josh Jacobs had 43 yards on 19 carries in week 13, after a 106-yard, 3-touchdown performance in week 12. Green Bay ranks 16th in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 38.2%.
In their most recent game, the Packers’ defense gave up 336 passing yards to the Dolphins, but still managed to come out on top with a 30-17 win. Miami completed 80.4% of their passes, but Green Bay’s defense made key plays on third down, allowing just a 28.6% conversion rate. The Packers’ defense also recorded five sacks and held Miami to just 39 rushing yards on 14 attempts.
Despite giving up some big plays in the passing game, the Packers’ defense was able to limit the Dolphins’ overall production. Green Bay’s defense was tough against the run, allowing only 2.8 yards per attempt, and they were successful in getting off the field by getting to the quarterback and forcing negative plays.
- Spanning across their last three games, Green Bay have gone 3-0. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
- Green Bay has put together a record of 8-2 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record vs the spread sits at 5-5 in these matchups, while posting a 4-5-1 over-under mark.
The Lions Can Win If…
With a 10-game winning streak, the Lions sit atop our NFL power rankings and have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. They are 11-1 this season, including a 3-0 record in division games and a 7-1 record against NFC opponents. Detroit is 6-0 on the road and 5-1 at home. Our projections give them an 84.7% chance of winning the NFC North.
Against the spread, the Lions are 9-3, with an average scoring margin of +15. They are 8-3 as favorites and 1-0 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 5-6-1, with the under hitting in their last two games. Their games have averaged 48.8 points this season, with an average O/U line of 49.6.
Heading into week 14, the Lions rank 2nd in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in scoring, averaging 31.9 points per game, and are 2nd in total yards with 395.2 per game. Despite ranking 26th in passing attempts, they are 5th in passing yards, averaging 240.8 per game. On the ground, they rank 3rd in rushing attempts and 4th in rushing yards, with 154.4 per game. Detroit ranks 4th in 3rd-down conversion percentage but is 27th in red zone efficiency.
Jared Goff has been solid, posting a passer rating of 100 in week 13 against the Bears, throwing for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team with 5 catches for 73 yards, while David Montgomery rushed for 88 yards on 21 carries. Detroit scored 20 of their 23 points in the first three quarters against Chicago but struggled on 3rd down, converting just 5 of 14 attempts.
In their 23-20 win over the Bears, the Lions’ defense gave up 223 passing yards on just 20 completions. Chicago struggled to run the ball, with Detroit allowing only 78 yards on 15 attempts. Despite this, the Lions gave up three passing touchdowns. The defense came up with five sacks and pressured the quarterback effectively, winning the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.
Detroit’s defense limited Chicago to 301 total yards and held them to a 51.3% completion rate. The Lions also performed well on third downs, allowing the Bears to convert just 46.7% of their third down opportunities.
- Through their last three games, the Lions have a record of 3-0. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.
- Through their last ten regular season contests, Detroit has a record of 9-1. Against the spread, Detroit went 7-3 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-4.
The Lean
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Packers to cover as road underdogs in this week 14 matchup between the Packers and Lions. The point spread lines have the Lions at -3.5, and with these lines, we have the Packers covering at 25-24.
For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards the under, with a projected combined score of 49 points and the O/U line sitting at 51 points.
Weekly Football Picks from The Best NFL Expert Handicappers
After 10 Straight Wins, Lions Face Packers: A Battle with Big Implications
The Detroit Lions are on fire. After tying the franchise record with 10 consecutive wins, they sit at the top of the NFC standings with an impressive 11-1 record. Yet, as they gear up to host the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night, much remains at stake in a fiercely contested NFC North division.
The Lions’ Rise to Dominance
The Lions’ 2023 season has been a masterclass in resilience, teamwork, and strategic brilliance. Head coach Dan Campbell has instilled a “playoff mindset,” emphasizing the importance of every game as they march toward the postseason.
“We’re in playoff football right now,” Campbell said. “Tough opponent after tough opponent is exactly what prepares you for the tournament.”
Detroit’s consistency has been remarkable, but their journey isn’t over. Despite their 10-game winning streak, they’re facing fierce competition from the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) and Green Bay Packers (9-3), keeping the NFC North title up for grabs.
Green Bay Packers: A Team on the Rise
The Packers have surged into contention, winning seven of their last eight games. Their only blemish during that run? A 24-14 loss to Detroit. In that game, the Lions dominated early, building a 21-point lead before holding off a Green Bay rally.
Green Bay has relied on its improving offense, led by quarterback Jordan Love. Love threw two touchdown passes in their recent 30-17 Thanksgiving win over Miami, showcasing his growing confidence and chemistry with playmakers like Jayden Reed.
“Detroit’s been doing things the right way for a couple of years now,” Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said. “But we’ve got our identity too, and this matchup is what December football is all about.”
Offensive Firepower: Lions vs. Packers
This Thursday night showdown promises to be a high-scoring affair. The Lions boast the NFL’s best offense, averaging 31.9 points per game, while the Packers rank eighth at 26.5 points per game.
- Jared Goff’s Redemption Arc: Goff has bounced back from a tough game against Houston in November, throwing six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last three outings. His MVP-caliber form is a major asset for Detroit’s high-powered offense.
- Dynamic Running Game: Detroit’s one-two punch of David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has been electric. Montgomery’s physicality complements Gibbs’ explosive speed, making the duo a nightmare for opposing defenses.
- Green Bay’s Offensive Threats: Jordan Love has steadily improved throughout the season. With weapons like Reed, Christian Watson, and Aaron Jones, the Packers have the ability to keep pace with Detroit in a shootout.
Injuries Impact Both Teams
Both teams are navigating injuries that could play a significant role in Thursday’s outcome.
- Detroit’s Defense Stretched Thin: The Lions are dealing with injuries to key defensive players, including linemen DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn emphasized the importance of adaptability and praised the front office for finding reinforcements.
- Green Bay’s Concerns: The Packers’ offensive line is hurting, with guard Elgton Jenkins sidelined. Additionally, linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and cornerback Corey Ballentine missed practice this week.
Strategic Keys to Victory
For the Packers, stopping Detroit’s running game is paramount. LaFleur called out the Lions’ backfield as a critical challenge, saying, “Montgomery will beat you up physically, and Gibbs can take it the distance.”
On the other side, the Lions must capitalize on their offensive depth while shoring up their injured defense to contain Green Bay’s balanced attack.
The Bigger Picture: NFC Playoff Implications
This game carries significant weight for both teams:
- Lions: A win would keep them atop the NFC standings and edge them closer to the NFC North title. It would also extend their record-breaking win streak to 11 games.
- Packers: A victory would narrow the gap in the division race and solidify their playoff aspirations.
With the Minnesota Vikings also in contention, the NFC North remains one of the tightest divisions in football. The Lions will face Minnesota in the regular-season finale, setting the stage for a thrilling finish.
Thursday Night Showdown: What to Expect
Fans can anticipate a gritty, high-stakes battle between two well-coached teams. Both the Lions and Packers are peaking at the right time, making this one of the most anticipated matchups of the season.
As Campbell put it, “This is the type of stuff that you live for.”
Final Thoughts
The Lions are in uncharted territory, leading the NFC and riding an incredible wave of momentum. However, the Packers’ resilience and recent form ensure this will be no easy game. For fans, it’s everything December football should be: a clash of titans with everything on the line.
ATBForum Prediction:DET -185
Source:Scoresandstas
