Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Picks and Predictions December 29th 2024

Green Bay vs. Minnesota Key Information

• Teams: Packers at Vikings
• Where: U.S. Bank Stadium Minneapolis
• Date: Sunday, December 29th
• Betting Odds MIN -123 | GB +101 O/U 48.5

The Packers Can Win If…

With a 34-0 win over the Saints in week 16, the Packers improved to 11-4 and extended their winning streak to two games. Despite the victory, Green Bay remains third in the NFC North, where they are 1-3, but they have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Our power rankings have the Packers second heading into week 17.

Against the spread, Green Bay is 8-6-1 this season, including two straight wins. They covered as 14-point favorites against the Saints, but the game went under the 43.5-point line. The Packers’ O/U record is 6-8-1, with the under hitting in two consecutive games.

Heading into week 17, the Packers are 6th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 27.5 points per game, which ranks 7th in the NFL. They’ve been strong in the first quarter, ranking 3rd in the league in scoring. On the ground, Green Bay is 6th in rushing attempts and 4th in rushing yards per game, with 147.3. Josh Jacobs has led the way, rushing for 69 yards on 13 carries in week 16.

In the passing game, the Packers rank 11th in yards per game, despite being 26th in attempts. Jordan Love threw for 182 yards and a touchdown in week 16, with a passer rating of 88. Jayden Reed led the team with 76 receiving yards in that game, while Christian Watson, who had 114 yards in week 14, is questionable for week 17.

The Packers’ defense was dominant in their most recent game, pitching a shutout and allowing just 196 total yards to the Saints. They were tough against the pass, allowing only 129 yards through the air and not giving up any touchdowns. Additionally, they intercepted one pass and held the Saints to a 50% completion rate.

Green Bay also defended the run well, allowing just 67 yards on 20 attempts. They recorded three sacks, had three more QB hits than the Saints, and forced New Orleans into a 36.4% third-down conversion rate.

• The Packers have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. This also includes going 2-0-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 1-2.
• The Packers have gone 8-2 over their last ten regular season games. Against the spread, Green Bay went 5-4-1 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 3-6-1.

The Vikings Can Win If…

With eight straight wins, the Vikings are now 13-2 this season, including a 6-1 record on the road and a 7-1 mark at home. Despite their strong record, they sit 2nd in the NFC North, with just a 23.7% chance of winning the division. However, they have already secured a playoff spot. In our power rankings, Minnesota is 7th heading into week 17.

Against the spread, the Vikings are 10-4-1, with three consecutive covers. They covered in week 16, beating the Seahawks 27-24 as 2.5-point favorites. The 51 points scored in that game went over the 43-point line. Minnesota’s O/U record this season is 6-9.

Sam Darnold has been solid for the Vikings, throwing for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 16, with a passer rating of 112. He bounced back after a 74.0 passer rating in week 15, where he threw for 231 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. In week 14, Darnold had a huge game, throwing for 347 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Falcons. Justin Jefferson led the way in week 16 with 10 catches for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Aaron Jones rushed for 67 yards on 18 carries.

Minnesota ranks 10th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 17. They are 9th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 26.4 points per game, and 12th in total yards per game with 346.3. The Vikings are 8th in passing yards per game (235.3) and 17th in rushing (111.1 yards per game). They lead the NFL in first-quarter scoring, averaging 7.3 points.

In their 27-24 win over the Seahawks, the Vikings’ defense gave up 302 yards through the air, with Seattle completing 72.1% of their passes. Despite this, Minnesota picked off two passes and limited the Seahawks to a 20% third-down conversion rate. The Vikings defended the run well, allowing just 59 yards on 15 attempts, but they did give up three passing touchdowns.

Minnesota’s defense recorded two sacks and had more tackles for loss than the Seahawks. Although they allowed 302 passing yards, the Vikings’ defense played a big role in their most recent victory.

• Through their last three games, the Vikings have a record of 3-0. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 1-2.
• The Vikings have gone 7-3 over their last ten regular season games. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 6-4 and an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread in this Packers vs. Vikings week 17 matchup is to take the Packers to cover as road underdogs. Currently, the point spread lines have the Packers at +1.5, and we have them winning 28-22.

For an over/under pick, we really like the over, with a projected combined score of 50 points and the O/U line sitting at 48.5 points.

Source: Scoresandstats