UCF vs. Florida Key Information

• Teams: Knights at Gators
• Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Gainesville
• Date: Saturday, October 5th
• Betting Odds UCF -135 | FL +113 O/U 61.5

The Knights Can Win If…

UCF enters Week 6 against Florida with a 3-1 record, ranked 31st in our power rankings. They have an 88.1% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Knights are 1-0 on the road and 1-1 at home this season.

UCF’s average scoring margin is +14.8, and they are 2-1 against the spread. They’ve been favored in two games, going 1-1 ATS as the favorite.

The over/under line for this week is 61.5 points. UCF’s games have averaged 64.2 points, with an average line of 58.8 points. Their over/under record is 3-0 this season.

UCF’s offense is heavily focused on their running game, ranking 2nd in the nation with 326 rushing yards per game. They are 6th in rushing attempts, averaging 52.2 per game. RJ Harvey leads the team with 525 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns, and an average of 7 yards per carry. UCF is also 19th in scoring, with 39.5 points per game, and they are 24th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6.

KJ Jefferson has thrown for 847 yards this season, with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He has a passer rating of 106. UCF ranks 89th in passing yards per game, averaging 217.2 yards. Kobe Hudson leads the receiving corps with 349 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 catches.

UCF’s defense will look to bounce back after a tough game against Colorado, where they allowed 48 points in a 48-21 loss. The Knights gave up 418 total yards, including 290 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air, though they did manage to force one interception.

Despite the rough outing, UCF’s defense ranks 12th nationally in rushing yards allowed, giving up just 82.2 yards per game on an average of 25.2 attempts, the 8th fewest in the country. However, they have struggled against the pass, allowing 251.5 yards per game, which ranks 128th nationally, with opposing quarterbacks completing 67% of their passes.

• The UCF Knights have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 3-0 on the over/under.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, UCF has a record of 6-4. This includes going 5-5 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Gators Can Win If…

Florida enters Week 6 against UCF with a 2-2 record. They are 1-0 on the road but 0-2 at home. The Gators rank 46th in our power rankings, and their chances of becoming bowl-eligible stand at 14.4%.

Florida’s ATS record is 1-2, with an average scoring margin of +4.5 points per game. They are 1-0 against the spread on the road but 0-2 at home. So far, they’ve been favored in just one game this season.

The over/under line for this week is 61.5, higher than any of their previous games. Florida’s over/under record is 3-0, with an average line of 52.3 points and an average total of 59 points per game.

Heading into week 6, Florida’s offense is averaging 31.8 points per game, placing them 42nd nationally. They are ranked 40th in our offensive power rankings. Their run game has been underwhelming, with 147.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 96th.

Montrell Johnson Jr. leads the team with 234 rushing yards, three touchdowns, and an average of 4 yards per carry. Quarterback DJ Lagway has 617 passing yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions, with a passer rating of 109.

Florida’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 27.2 points per game. In their recent game against Mississippi State, they gave up 28 points but still managed a 45-28 win. The defense allowed 294 total yards, including 150 rushing yards on 50 attempts and 144 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 189 rushing yards per game against Florida, ranking them 132nd nationally. The secondary has allowed 236.8 passing yards per game, with quarterbacks completing 65.6% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 107.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Florida Gators have gone 1-2 straight up. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 0-3 to go along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Florida Gators have gone 5-5 straight up. In these contests, the team went just 2-8 against the spread, while going 6-4 on the over-under.

The Lean

Florida is the +2.5 point underdog at home in their week six matchup against UCF, but we like the Gators to pull off the upset. Our projected final score is 29-25 in favor of Florida, making them a good bet to win straight-up.

With the over/under line set at 61.5 points, our projection of 54 combined points suggests that taking the under is the best play for this game.

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Source:Scoresandstats