Buffalo vs. Kansas City Key Information

• Teams: Bills at Chiefs
• Where: Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City
• Date: Sunday, January 26th
• Betting Odds KC -129 | BUF +109 O/U 47.5

The Chiefs are favored on the money line at -129 as they host the Bills in the AFC Conference Championship. The game, which will be played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, is set for 6:30 ET on Sunday, January 26th. On the point spread, the Chiefs are -2, and the over/under line is at 47.5 points. You can watch the game on CBS.

The Bills Can Win If…

After finishing the regular season 13-4, the Bills bounced back from two straight losses by defeating the Jaguars 47-10 in week 3. Buffalo entered the game as 4-point favorites and easily covered the spread, with the 57 combined points going over the 46.5-point line. Before that, the Bills had dropped two in a row, including a 25-point loss to the Ravens in week 4 and a 23-20 defeat to the Texans in week 5.

Buffalo’s strong regular season earned them the top spot in the AFC East and 2nd in the conference. They were 10-0 at home but just 5-4 on the road. Heading into week 3, they ranked 3rd in our power rankings and had an average scoring margin of +9.6. Against the spread, the Bills were 12-7, with a 9-5 record as favorites and 3-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record was also 12-7, with the over hitting in their last two games.

Heading into the AFC Championship, the Bills rank 3rd in our offensive power rankings and are 2nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 30.7. They are 10th in yards per game (360.5) and 11th in passing yards, with 224.3 per game, despite ranking 27th in passing attempts. On the ground, Buffalo is 9th in rushing yards, averaging 136.2 per game on 30.1 attempts (7th). They rank 7th in 3rd-down conversion rate and are 5th in red zone attempts, but they have struggled to convert, ranking 30th in the league.

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Josh Allen threw for 127 yards (16/22) in the divisional round, after his 272-yard, 2-touchdown performance in the Wild Card round. James Cook led the team with 67 rushing yards on 17 carries, and Khalil Shakir had 6 catches for 67 yards against the Ravens. Buffalo scored 14 points in the first half, but were held scoreless in the 3rd quarter before scoring 6 points in the 4th.

The Bills’ defense gave up 176 rushing yards on just 30 attempts in their 27-25 win over the Ravens. Baltimore had a good amount of success in the running game, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt. Buffalo’s run defense will need to improve going forward. The Ravens finished with 416 total yards, but Buffalo’s defense made some key plays to help secure the win.

Buffalo’s defense did come up with one interception and had two sacks in the game. Despite allowing just 18 completions, the Ravens averaged 9.6 yards per passing attempt. Additionally, Buffalo allowed Baltimore to convert on 70% of their third down attempts.

• Through their last three games, the Bills have a record of 2-1. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• The Bills have gone 8-2 over their last ten regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 7-3 against the spread, while going 7-3 on the over-under.

The Chiefs Can Win If…

The Chiefs head into the conference championship game against the Bills with a 15-2 record, which puts them 1st in the AFC. In the divisional round, Kansas City beat the Texans 23-14 but couldn’t cover the 9.5-point spread. The O/U line was 41.5, and the teams combined for 37 points. Before that, the Chiefs lost 38-0 to the Broncos in week 18 and beat the Steelers 29-10 in week 17.

In our power rankings, Kansas City is 6th. They have an average scoring margin of +3.8 points per game and are 7-10-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 7-11, with the under hitting in two straight games.

Heading into the conference championship, the Chiefs are 14th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 22.7 points per game. They rank 19th in the league in total offense, with 321.2 yards per game, and are 16th in passing yards, averaging 219 per game. Kansas City has been strong on 3rd down, converting 48.5% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the NFL.

Patrick Mahomes threw for 177 yards and one touchdown in the divisional round, going 16/25 against the Texans. Travis Kelce had 7 catches for 117 yards, and Kareem Hunt led the team in rushing with 44 yards on 8 carries.

The Chiefs’ defense stepped up with eight sacks in their 23-14 win over the Texans, despite struggling to stop the run, allowing 149 yards on 29 attempts (5.1 per attempt). They defended the pass well, giving up just 187 yards through the air and not allowing any passing touchdowns.

Against the pass, the Texans completed 67.9% of their throws and converted 58.8% of their third downs. Kansas City’s eight sacks were a key factor in disrupting Houston’s offense.

• Over their last three games, the Chiefs have gone 3-0 straight up. Against the spread, they have gone 1-2 and logged an over-under record of 1-2 in these games.
• Kansas City has put together a record of 10-0 in their last ten games (regular season). This includes going 4-6 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 4-5-1.

The Lean

With the point spread sitting at 47.5, we are leaning towards taking the over in this week three postseason matchup between the Chiefs and Bills. Our projections have these teams finishing with 52 combined points, making the over a strong play.

For a point-spread pick, we like the Bills to not only cover but win this matchup 27-25. Even though they are on the road, the Bills are our pick to cover as 2-point underdogs.