MLB “Series of the Week” Betting Report: Milwaukee at Washington

One of the biggest MLB series on the board this week at the top online sportsbooks taking betting action on baseball is a three-game National League clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Washington Nationals. Both teams come into this week’s games at the top of its respective MLB division race, but headed in completely different directions when it comes to their current playing form.

Milwaukee’s lead in the NL Central has disappeared in the midst of a 3-7 slide since the All-Star break. Of greater concern could be the fact that five of these games were against the lowly Philadelphia Phillies to account for those three wins. The Brewers are now 53-48 overall and tied with the red hot Chicago Cubs (51-46) for the division lead with four extra games played in the standings. In between the home-and-home series against Philly, Milwaukee dropped four games on the road against Pittsburgh.

The Nationals are in complete control of the NL East at 59-38 overall and they come into this series with an 8-2 record in their last 10 contests. They expanded their lead over Atlanta to 12.5 games by taking two of three from Arizona on the road this past weekend. Washington got things started in the right direction coming off the break with a four-game sweep against Cincinnati on the road. It returns to Nationals Park following that extended nine-game road trip with a 26-19 record at home this season.

Starting Pitchers                       

Game 1

The Brewers will start this series with Zach Davies on the mound. The right-hander is 11-4 on the year with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He failed to get the decision in last Wednesday’s start against the Pirates, but he looked sharp over seven innings with just one unearned run allowed on eight hits.

The Nationals made a pitching change for Tuesday’s series opener with Edwin Jackson now schedule to get the start. The right-hander looked solid in his debut as the fifth starter in the rotation last week against the Los Angeles Angels after coming over from Baltimore. He went seven full innings and allowed just two earned runs on three hits to pick up the win.

Game 2

Wednesday night’s 7:05 p.m. start should feature Jimmy Nelson as the Brewers’ starter. He gave up four earned runs on six hits in five innings pitched in a loss to Pittsburgh last week. The right-hander fell to 8-5 and his ERA spiked up a bit to 3.43 with a 1.23 WHIP. This was the first time that he had allowed more than three earned runs over his last five starts.

Washington’s starter for Wednesday night in a 7:05 p.m. start at Nationals Park should be Gio Gonzalez. He got bounced around by the Angels last week with four earned runs allowed on five hits in 5 2/3 innings pitched. The left-hander is now 8-5 overall with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

Game 3

Look for Matt Garza to be on the mound for Milwaukee in Thursday’s 12:05 p.m. matinee. He went five innings his last time out and got tagged with the loss after allowing two earned runs on three hits in the Brewers’ 6-1 loss to Philadelphia. The right-hander is 4-5 through 15 previous starts and his current ERA stands at 3.83 with a 1.26 WHIP.

The Nationals are expected to go with their ace Max Scherzer in Thursday’s Game 3. The hard-throwing right-hander failed to get the decision in his last start against Arizona on July 21 in Washington’s 6-5 loss. He gave up five earned runs on eight hits in five innings pitched after allowing a total of five earned runs over his previous five starts.

Betting Trends

–The Brewers are 5-2 in the opening game of their last seven series and the total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last nine road games.

–The Nationals are 11-5 in their last 16 home games against a team with a winning record on the road. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games played at home.

–This will be the first meeting this season in this NL tilt and Milwaukee holds a 4-2 edge in the previous six meetings last season. The total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games between the two.

Series Prediction

I am looking for a split in the first two games, but when it comes to the series price I am going with Washington to take Thursday’s Game 3 as a probable solid home favorite with Scherzer on the mound. Consistently winning on the road when you are not playing your best baseball can be difficult to do, especially when facing a quality team such as the Nationals.