MWC Mountain Division Spread Wager

By Don Phillips
Boise State vs. Air Force
Friday, Nov. 20 | 7:30 p.m. MT
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, Idaho
TV: ESPN2
Air Force and Boise State are meeting for the fourth time overall with all four meetings coming as conference foes. Boise State leads the series, 2-1, overall and 2-0 at home. The teams first played Oct. 22, 2011 at Boise State. The Broncos won the game, 37-26. Boise State defeated Air Force, 42-20, the last time the two played in Boise. The Falcons defeated Boise State, 28-14, last season in Falcon Stadium.

Through the games of Nov. 14, Boise State is in the FBS’ top 20 in both total offense and total defense. The Broncos rank 11th in total defense with 302.4 yards allowed per game and 15th in total offense, gaining 498.8 yards per game. Boise State is one of just two teams, along with the No. 1 team in the country, Clemson, to rank in the top 20 of both categories.

Running back Jeremy McNichols is tied for third in the FBS in touchdowns scored (19), just one behind co-leaders Corey Coleman (Baylor) and Kenneth Dixon (Louisiana Tech), after scoring twice in Saturday night’s 31-24 loss to New Mexico. McNichols’ 15 rushing touchdowns are tied for eighth in the FBS, four behind national leader Derrick Henry from Alabama. The Boise State single-season record for rushing touchdowns is 28, set by Jay Ajayi last year, and the overall single-season mark for touchdowns scored is 32, shared by Ajayi (2014) and Brock Forsey (2002). With 19 touchdowns through 10 team games, McNichols is on behind Ajayi’s scoring pace (20 TDs through 10 games) and behind Forsey’s (24 TDs through 10 games) for total touchdowns, and with 15 rushing scores
through 10 games is three back of Ajayi’s 2014 pace.

Despite playing in just eight games this season, Rypien already leads the Mountain West with 2,539 passing yards, 519 ahead of the next quarterback (Colorado State’s Nick Stevens, who has played 10 games), and ranks 12th in the FBS with 317.4 passing yards per game. His Mountain West-leading efficiency rating of 143.0 also ranks 36th in the country.

Air Force ranks 12th in the nation in total defense, allowing just 305.6 yards per game. The team leads the conference and ranks fifth nationally in opponent first downs with 149. Air Force leads the conference and is 11th in sacks with 30.

Air Force is second in the MW in scoring offense with a 34.1 average. Air Force leads the MW and is third nationally in rushing with a 333.2 average. Air Force is second in the MW in total offense with a 454.5 norm. Air Force leads the MW and ranks fourth nationally in time of possession with a 33:45 mark. Air Force has not had a turnover in three straight games.

Air Force has had six players rush for 100 or more yards in a game this season. That total leads
the nation. Colorado is next with five players, followed by Houston and Baylor with four each.

AIR FORCE is 3-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST since 1992

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in AIR FORCE games 53.1% of the time since 1992. (127-112)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in BOISE ST games 36.1% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (13-23)

Key Player Injuries

AIR FORCE
[DL] 10/24/2015 – David Harris out indefinitely ( Undisclosed )
[CB] 10/24/2015 – Kalon Baker out indefinitely ( Hamstring )
[LB] 10/22/2015 – Dexter Walker out indefinitely ( Undisclosed )
[LB] 10/22/2015 – Patrick Healy out indefinitely ( Undisclosed )
[QB] 09/15/2015 – Nate Romine out for season ( Knee )

BOISE ST
[TE] 11/18/2015 – David Lucero out indefinitely ( Suspension )
[WR] 11/18/2015 – Shane Williams-Rhodes “?” Friday vs. Air Force ( Ankle )
[DB] 11/18/2015 – Donte Deayon doubtful Friday vs. Air Force ( Knee )
[WR] 11/16/2015 – Akilian Butler out indefinitely ( Collarbone )
[OL] 10/27/2015 – Rees Odhiambo out for season ( Ankle )
[S] 10/14/2015 – Dylan Sumner-Gardner out indefinitely ( Ankle )
[DE] 09/21/2015 – Gabe Perez out for season ( Shoulder )
[DE] 09/21/2015 – Rondell McNair out indefinitely ( Knee )
[QB] 09/20/2015 – Ryan Finley out indefinitely ( Ankle )

Selection: Air Force +12