NFL|Patriots (10-2) vs. Chiefs (8-4)|Sunday Dec 8,2019

Kansas City at New England

When: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, December 8, 2019

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Most of the nation’s eyes will be glued to this key match-up at  Gillette Stadium.Finally, a game to handicap that does not involve the word polar nor vortex.  Conditions will be cold in Foxborough as The Patriots  try to rebound from their second loss in four weeks and clinch their 11th consecutive postseason berth against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon.The number opened up at -3.0 New England with the total O/U listed at 48.5  and rose slightly to -3 1/2  Where do we wager at for this non-prime time showdown at 4:PM on CBS?

Of Course America’s Bookie

With ample bonus promotions, the margin of safety at America’s Bookie is more than ample for your bankroll to last long into the 2019 playoff season.  Now onto the task at hand, ABOUT THE CHIEFS (8-4): Mahomes threw for a touchdown and ran for another in last week’s 40-9 drubbing of Oakland — the third time in four weeks he failed to eclipse 182 yards passing — but he torched New England for 647 yards and seven scores versus two interceptions last season. Kansas City is thin in the backfield with Darrel Williams going on injured reserve and Damien Williams (rib) still not practicing, leaving veteran LeSean McCoy and rookie Darwin Thompson to carry the load. Mahomes has elite weapons in speedster Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, who needs 77 yards to become the first tight end with four straight 1,000-yard seasons. The Chiefs are a lowly 30th against the run, allowing 141.3 yards per game.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-2): New England’s offense continues to sputter and only two late touchdown passes from Brady last week enabled the team to surpass 20 points for the first time in the last four games. While Brady has 18 TD passes against six interceptions, he has barely completed more than 50 percent of his passes over the last three games and has not registered a quarterback rating of at least 100.0 since Week 5 at Washington. Julian Edelman remains Brady’s top target with 61 receptions and four scores over the past eight games, but running back Sony Michel has yet to hit 100 yards after eclipsing that mark twice versus Kansas City last season. The Patriots rank second against the pass at 163.5 yards allowed. 

• • Since 2016, these two teams have met four times, including two playoff battles. The last meeting was a 37-31 overtime victory for New England this past January. The Patriots have won three of the last four.

  • Only one of their last four matchups was by a wide margin: A 42-27 victory for Kansas City in ’17. In that span, the Patriots averaged 33.5 points and the Chiefs averaged 33.3.

  • New England ranks 14th in the league with 360.8 yards per game and rank sixth with 26.8 points per game. The Patriots have averaged just 18 PPG the past month. The Chiefs D allows 372.1 YPG, eighth-worst in the NFL.

  • Kansas City averages 384.7 YPG, fourth-best in the league. It’s third-best with 29 PPG. New England’s D has been a storyline all season, but it has shown holes against better offenses. The Patriots rank first in scoring defense (12.1 points/game) and second in yardage (258.0 yards/game).

Against the Spread (?)

The Patriots are just 3-2 ATS at home this year and 7-5 overall. Kansas City is also 7-5 ATS, but 4-2 on the road. A 2.5-point line has been given to the home team (-134) here; but sticking with the CHIEFS (+3.0, +110) is the play.

The moneyline has a better return, so I’d put my money there rather than pay for the 2.5 points of insurance.

Over/Under (?)

The line of 49.5 is tied for highest on this weekend’s slate. In the last four meetings, these two averaged 66.8 combined points per game. With the Pats’ (who are 2-3-0 vs. the O/U at home (4-8-0 overall)) offense struggling, it’s a lofty line. The defense will break at points, but even when they have against better teams this year, they’ve given up 28 or more points just twice all season. The Chiefs are 3-3-0 vs. the O/U on the road. Pick= PASS

The Big-Lou Free Pick of the Day is to take Kansas City Chiefs plus the points in this one.  (+3.5) 

Good fortune and we will see you on Monday